VaultSTRThe short version
Rentalizer is AirDNA's address-level revenue estimator: type in a property, get a projected annual revenue, ADR, and occupancy. It's also the number most likely to walk into your next client meeting ahead of you. The short version of this page: Rentalizer is a legitimate starting estimate built on real comp data, independent tests put it 15-30% off actual performance — usually high — and the professional move is to underwrite year one at 60-75% of its projection. Here's how the tool works, why it misses, and how to use it anyway.
How Rentalizer builds its number
Rentalizer selects nearby comparable listings — similar bedroom count, capacity, and property type — and projects your address's revenue from their trailing performance: their ADR, their occupancy, their seasonality curve. On the Research plan ($34/month billed annually — see the AirDNA pricing breakdown) the comp set is customizable; you can swap out the comps it chose and watch the projection move.
That design is the source of both its usefulness and its errors. The projection is only as good as the comps — and the comps carry three systematic biases.
Why it skews optimistic
Survivorship in the comp pool. The listings Rentalizer can see are the ones operating well enough to stay listed. Failed listings exit the data. Your client's first year gets projected from a pool that quietly excludes the outcomes that looked like most first years.
Blocked calendars read as demand. When a host blocks dates for personal use, many end up counted toward occupancy math. In second-home markets — exactly where STR clients shop — reported occupancy runs hotter than bookable reality.
Professional operators set the curve. Comp ADRs are earned by hosts with dialed-in pricing, photography, and reviews. A new listing with zero reviews doesn't earn comp-level ADR in month one, and sometimes not in year one.
The result, across independent tests and operator-reported actuals: estimates land 15-30% off in either direction, with the misses clustering on the high side. AirDNA's market-level data doesn't share this problem to the same degree — aggregates are more forgiving than single-address predictions (our full AirDNA review covers both halves). The tool is weakest precisely where clients treat it as strongest.
The 60-75% rule
Our working standard for client-facing pro formas: model year one at 60-75% of the Rentalizer projection.
- 60% — new-build listing, zero reviews, competitive urban market, or a comp set you couldn't verify
- 70% — typical case: decent property, competent setup, seasonal market
- 75% — experienced operator client, strong comp set you hand-picked, purchase includes an existing listing with reviews
Show both numbers in the memo — Rentalizer's projection and your adjusted case, with the gap explained in one sentence. Nothing builds credibility with a sophisticated buyer faster than an agent who discounts their own tool's optimism unprompted. And when even 75% of the projection doesn't pencil, say so. The deal your client doesn't do on bad numbers is worth more to your practice than the one they do.
The 15-minute workflow
- Run the address, then open the comp set. Never accept the default comps. Remove anything with a different bedroom count, an obvious luxury/budget mismatch, or a hostel-style capacity.
- Check occupancy against bookable reality. If comps show 75%+ occupancy in a second-home market, assume calendar-block inflation and trim.
- Read the seasonality curve, not just the annual number. A market earning 60% of revenue in twelve weeks is a different risk conversation than the same total spread evenly. Your client's lender will ask.
- Apply the 60-75% haircut and rebuild the number in your own pro forma with real expense lines — cleaning, dynamic pricing software, insurance, and the regulatory check no data tool does.
- Hand the client both numbers, branded. The raw screenshot is what every other agent sends.
For a fast independent cross-check, run the same address through the free VaultSTR Airbnb revenue calculator — different data source, same five inputs, and the gap between the two projections is itself useful information.
What Rentalizer is genuinely good for
Ranking, not predicting. It's reliable for comparing two addresses in the same market, screening a shortlist quickly, and anchoring the comp conversation. Treat the absolute number as a hypothesis and the relative numbers as signal, and the tool earns its keep many times over at Research-plan pricing.
Bottom line
Rentalizer is the best address-level starting point in the category and a poor finished answer. The agents who get burned are the ones who forward it; the agents who win listings are the ones who adjust it, explain the adjustment, and put their name on the result. This is not financial advice. Underwrite every deal on its own numbers.